Looking at the Sunny Side

I was reading an article in The Economist - in my "humble" opinion probably the only magazine you really need to read - and came across an article therein on project management.  Now, I usually think project management is a fairly dry subject, but in this case the article was really about the fact that most projects end up costing more than anticipated and taking longer than anticipated - and much of that overage is due to poor estimation.

This really resonated with me because I think most project managers and the rest of us too are overly optimistic when we estimate how long a project will take to complete and how much it will cost.  Going into any project, it's fairly simple to outline the basic parameters of the project - what should be accomplished, the rough number of resources required, the major milestones and so forth.  Where I think things break down is in the little details. 

For example, I worked with a firm that developed software in Israel.  The developers and project managers in Israel were very hard working and dedicated, and did a great job.  However, I received a project plan from a product manager for a project that was started in July and intended to finish in October.  For those of you who don't know (and I didn't at the time), almost every significant holiday on the calendar is in August and September in Israel.  The project manager did not take into account the fact that during the period July - October the team would miss a total of 2 weeks of work time due to vacations.  And I would have accepted the project plan except for the fact that one of the developers told me he was going on a holiday - and then explained that everyone else would be as well.

We often don't factor into our plans real time sinks like:
- Holidays
- Vacations
- Illness in the team
- Sudden emergencies which call team members back to their original jobs
- A lack of timely decision making
- Requirements that are not well defined and still in motion during the project
- Changing attitudes about the project and the financial commitments

What this means is that in planning a project we are too fixated on the "sunny side" or "sunny day" forecast - nothing will go wrong and all decisions will fall into place in a timely fashion.  In software terms, we call this the "golden path".  That's the demonstration that the software guys give you in the new software version where they don't dare deviate from the one business process in the software they know that works.  Any other button push or deviation from the golden path may cause a crash.

To be productive, we have to consider the good and the not so good.  Overly optimistic project planning simply leads to rework and disgruntled teams.  As much as possible, define the project and especially the scope of the project and your expectations about the project as clearly and definitively as possible to the project team and the folks who will have to supply you with information or resources.  Anytime more than 3 people are on a project, someone is going to get sick, have a sick relative, have a relative or friend pass away, have an accident in their car or something else that will pull them away from work.  Even consulting firms, firms that make money by scheduling and selling their folks into projects, rarely anticipate more than 80-85% effectiveness from an individual.  What effectiveness do you expect per person on your project?

Also, define the expectations clearly.  Tell the decision makers and resource providers that the project requires decisions to be made in a timely (ie within 2 days) basis.  Delaying decisions means slowing down the team.  In one fixed fee project where this was going to be a problem, we wrote into the contract the right for the project team to make any decision that the management team could not or would not make in 3 days. Replacing people on the team or changing the requirements is also a real momentum killer.  Let's face it - it takes a team a certain amount of time to get "up to speed" to become effective.  If the requirements are constantly changing, or the team members keep chaging, that team never reaches its full potential.

Good estimation is the key to timely projects.  Overly optimistic assumptions which don't factor in real world issues (sickness, vacation, changing priorities, etc) will lead to inaccurate projections and greater issues down the road.  Keep your outlook optimistic, but be sure you consider the things that "can" happen during a project, because they will happen.

Comments

[orangeandbrown]

Nice post and nice topic. This is a common problem. I contend, having read open loops, that its more art than science.

And The Economist is the only magazine you need to read.

[alex]

What is this myth about the Economist being "the only magazine you need to read"?
It's a good one, but its far from complete. It's somewhat biased, has selective coverage, and only has "surveys" which really catch you up to speed on the latest buzzwords. That having been said, it's probably the single most broad source of info--use it to know what the news worth following are--but don't stop there. Read up on it and follow it up in a place that has some depth of details, like the New Yorker or the NYT magazine (among surely many others).