Lately I've been reading a lot of war histories, and what's interesting is the consistency of many different armies in many different situation to ascribe to their opponents the tactics and plans that will best fit an established worldview. In other words, many armies throughout history had a specific plan of action and assumed their opponents would follow the script.
The Romans fought Hannibal in phalanxes, which Hannibal surrounded and destroyed with enveloping tactics and cavalry. The Persians fought with massive armies but Alexander beat them by one powerful thrust directly at the leadership. In many instances you'll find that one army projects what it wants to believe about battle conditions or future opponents on its enemy.
Likewise, many firms do the same things - they project what they want to believe about the future and reject information to the contrary. For example, I worked in a consulting firm in the late 90s that was growing rapidly, succeeding because of the Y2K issue. We were replacing older systems that were not Y2K compliant. Since we were not solely reliant on Y2K, we believed the Y2K solution would not impact our business once the conversions were complete. In February 1999, looking at our pipeline and potential new projects, several of us felt that our market was slowing down and we needed to act to diversify and find more customers. The leadership rejected that assertion, and felt that we were reacting to information that was not pertinent. In August 1999 after four months of horrible sales, we let go almost one-third of the company, since our clients and prospects weren't spending leading into 2000. Our management team rejected information that did not fit with their prevailing world view.
How do you develop the plans and goals for your business? Do you take last year's plan and tweak it slightly? Do you enunciate your assumptions about your business? What happens to information that is gathered that doesn't conform to the way your business views the world? Is conflicting information immediately rejected or investigated? What would happen if your competitors or your markets moved in directions that conflict with your established plans and perspectives?
Andy Grove is famous for many things, but one of the most prescient things he said was that "only the paranoid survive". By this I think he means the people who are constantly sifting through all the possibilities and who are open to other opportunities, not locked into one specific perspective or worldview.
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