Unwinding implications

A few weeks ago we decided at home to purchase gas logs for our fireplace.  Right now we have this large monstrosity of a fireplace with nothing in it, so the fireplace just sits there like a gaping wound in the wall.  My wife does not like me to tromp through the house with wood, as wood fires create ashes and dirt on the carpet.  So, to use the fireplace and add some charm to the room, we decided to get some gas logs.

What I did not understand is all the implications and tradeoffs associated with that now questioned decision.  Did I want "Vented" or "Unvented" logs - that one was relatively easy.  Vented, since unvented ones create too much heat.  OK - natural gas or propane.  Propane. 

Did I understand that the installer would force open and leave open the flue in the chimney.  Well, no.  Why?  Well, the pilot light burns all the time and you need a place for the gases to escape.  Well, doesn't the open flue tend to negate the heating factor of the fireplace, especially when the fireplace isn't working?  So the sales person tells us we can install glass doors on the front of the fireplace to close off air escaping through the chimney.  At this point I've moved from a $500 purchase to a $2000 purchase and impacted how well I can regulate the temperature in my house. 

I guess I wanted to write all of that to point out two things.  One, we live an an era of abundance when actually making good choices can be very difficult and two, many seemingly simple decisions carry with them a number of hidden or not well-understood consequences or implications.  Unfortunately the hidden consequences or implications can often cost more or require more work than the initial commitments and decisions.  That's why it makes sense in a complicated, interconnected world to think through any decision, no matter how simple it seems, because there are more than likely other threads you haven't considered and implications that will appear as soon as your decision is made.

Effective management in this era relies as much on intuition as it ever did, but now the intuition required is insight into what consequences or implications a particular decision will present and how to react to those implications.  In history, fewer options meant fewer choices, and most likely risks that were more reasonably understood.  Today, the number of options we have in many decisions is overwhelming (especially as a consumer) and fraught with risk.  Take one example in my life - Digital Videocameras.  There's a camera with no "hard drive" or tape.  There are cameras with digital tape, and cameras with an internal DVD drive.  Three different formats at least, and given my luck, the one I pick will be the evolutionary dead end.  For now I am sticking with my analog cam corder.

Effective management is also good at unwinding the implications of a decision and acting on those implications before they happen.  Rather than blindly rushing into buying gas logs, a reasonable manager (which I hope to be one day) would have researched the implications and understood the tradeoffs.  Well, the one positive I can take away so far is that I've learned a little more along the way.

Comments

[Robert Hruzek]

This is so true! And don't get me started on the unforseen consequences of the myriad decisions needed when we bought our new house!

Just one example: wood floors look fantastic... but they don't call them "hard" wood floors for nuthin'!

This is why contingency planning is such a good exercise (particularly for engineering projects like the ones I manage). Although planning doesn't PREVENT problems from happening, when unexpected consequences pop up, at least you're more-or-less prepared to act.

[Robert Hruzek]

This is so true! And don't get me started on the unforseen consequences of the myriad decisions needed when we bought our new house!

Just one example: wood floors look fantastic... but they don't call them "hard" wood floors for nuthin'!

This is why contingency planning is such a good exercise (particularly for engineering projects like the ones I manage). Although planning doesn't PREVENT problems from happening, when unexpected consequences pop up, at least you're more-or-less prepared to act.

[Robert Hruzek]

But there's no contingency for me when I push the publish button twice by accident! Oops.

[Kathleen DeFilippo]

Jeffrey, great way to use a personal story to illustrate a key business concept! I find that my years as a software development project manager have been of immense help in mastering the art of thinking through all the alternatives before I choose a course of action. My natural tendency to play devil's advocate, while somewhat neurotic, doesn't hurt either. :-)

[Dan Keldsen]

Jeffrey - I have a colleague who has experienced the same issue with fireplace inserts, leading to chimney lining, leading to...

Silly me, thought I avoided that on a "simple" job of replacing a garbage disposal and kitchen faucet, which led to replacing the countertops as they had rotted out from a hidden slow leak, leading to...

And so by analogy, it is certainly worth balancing out the need/imperative to get started on an innovation initiative (for one example), and to balance the "real work" (from another of your posts), and to see what the domino effect might be - and to paint a few pictures as to what the downstream implications might be.

Of course in an innovation or idea generation context, it's getting people to lay off on that filtering/focusing aspect until enough ideas have been generated in the first place, but that's another topic, for another time! (I've dropped two questions into LinkedIn's new 'Answers' facility to see what people are doing for idea generation and idea focusing, and have been surprised by the responses. Questions isn't closed yet, but I'm not getting the answers I'd expected.)

Cheers,
Dan

[Nathaniel @ project management test]

Excellent post! Thanks to this, I have realized how true it is that our every decision in today's era is really essential and this depends on what path we are going to take-especially when you talk about business.

I really appreciate this post. Thanks a lot!